Report
Patrick Artus

Could the ECB never end its expansionary monetary policy?

Some economists and investors are wondering whether the ECB, like the Bank of Japan, could never end its highly expansionary monetary policy. We do not believe in this scenario of a "Japanisation" of the ECB, for several reasons: The "nominal standard" (wage growth, expected inflation) is not 0% in the euro zone, but rather 2%. A constantly zero nominal interest rate would therefore generate a drastically negative real interest rate in the euro zone, which is not the case in Japan; European investors, far more easily than Japanese investors, export capital to benefit from higher returns abroad. Keeping interest rates at zero for a long time in the euro zone could therefore lead to massive capital outflows, which has not been the case in Japan; Japanese savers (households and companies) accept to hold a significant part of their savings in bank deposits. This is probably not the case in Europe, which, if the money creation continued, would lead to massive investment of money in other asset classes and to very large bubbles in the prices of these assets; The Northern euro-zone countries (including Germany) are not prepared to accept such a "Japanisation" of the euro zone.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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