Could the euro zone adopt Japan’s economic policy arrangement?
The euro zone has a well-known economic policy arrangement : Fiscal rules (limits to fiscal deficits and public debt ); Inflation target (2%) for the central bank. Accordingly, fiscal policy (from 2023) and monetary policy will now have to become restrictive, both of which are unpleasant. Japan has a completely different economic policy arrangement: The Bank of Japan keeps the long-term interest rate at around 0% (yield curve control ); Fiscal policy is then completely unconstrained, leading to a considerably high public debt ratio and the ability to periodically kick-start the economy with fiscal deficits. Under what conditions today could the euro zone adopt Japan’s economic policy arrangement, which would relieve it from having to reduce fiscal deficits and raise interest rates? Like in Japan, in the euro zone it would require: A complete absence of wage-price indexation, so as to prevent imported inflationary shocks from turning into high inflation; C omplete indifference to drastic exchange rate fluctuations caused by having a very different monetary policy to other countries; A high level of national savings, despite high fiscal deficits, to prevent this policy from giving rise to a spiralling external deficit.