Could the euro zone slip back into deflation?
Since 2014 in the euro zone , the question has been whether the highly expansionary monetary policy and the decline in unemployment would bring back inflation in the zone. C ore inflation has not returned. Labour costs may have accelerated slightly in the recent period, but this has not been passed on to prices. Do we now need to ask a different question and start worrying about the return of deflation in the future , considering that the starting point of core inflation is low and euro-zone growth is weakening? For this to be the case , there would need to be: An economic crisis (a recession) and not just a fall in growth, given the low sensitivity of wages to the unemployment rate; A global slowdown combined with an increase in global oil supply, causing oil prices to p lummet. This is unlikely, as the fall in oil prices would stem growth in oil supply. The scenario of deflation therefore carries a very low probability at present in the euro zone.