Report
Patrick Artus

Could the euro zone slip back into deflation?

Since 2014 in the euro zone , the question has been whether the highly expansionary monetary policy and the decline in unemployment would bring back inflation in the zone. C ore inflation has not returned. Labour costs may have accelerated slightly in the recent period, but this has not been passed on to prices. Do we now need to ask a different question and start worrying about the return of deflation in the future , considering that the starting point of core inflation is low and euro-zone growth is weakening? For this to be the case , there would need to be: An economic crisis (a recession) and not just a fall in growth, given the low sensitivity of wages to the unemployment rate; A global slowdown combined with an increase in global oil supply, causing oil prices to p lummet. This is unlikely, as the fall in oil prices would stem growth in oil supply. The scenario of deflation therefore carries a very low probability at present in the euro zone.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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