Could the Italian crisis become very serious?

We consider the sequence of events which could transform the present crisis in Italy into a serious crisis: The rise in interest rates and banks' problems (due to the correlation between sovereign risk and bank risk) would lead to a significant slowdown in growth; The fiscal deficit would therefore be increased, and fiscal solvency would no longer be ensured, especially since potential growth is practically zero; The rise in interest rates would therefore be amplified, especially if the rating agencies then continued to downgrade Italy's credit rating; the ECB (or the ESM) could not intervene because Italy would of course reject the implementation of OMTs; If Italy could no longer obtain financing in normal conditions, the question of a public debt default would arise, and financial markets would anticipate a risk of exiting the euro, leading to further rises in interest rates. To prevent this sequence of events, the fiscal deficit would have to finance stimulation of supply, which is necessary, and not of demand, which is unnecessary in Italy due to the shortfall in supply. In that case, financial markets would understand that the fiscal deficit is not dangerous.