Could the world pivot to a situation of insufficient demand for risk-free bonds?
Since the 1990s, the world has been characterised by ex ante excess demand for risk-free bonds (sovereign bonds) . This has helped drive down real long-term interest rates. Could it now pivot to a situation where there is an ex ante shortfall of demand for risk-free bonds and therefore a rise in their equilibrium real interest rates? A shortfall of demand for risk-free bonds could result from: The magnitude of their supply, due to high fiscal deficits; The end of central bank purchases of risk-free bonds due to the end of quantitative easing; The absorption of savings by other investments at the expense of financing fiscal deficits (investments in the energy transition, in reindustrialisation); A decline in the overall level of savings due to population ageing; Concern among savers about the real quality of sovereign bonds, leading to a fall in demand for them; A decline in the level of foreign exchange reserves, if the countries that hold them convert them into productive investments.