Report
Patrick Artus

Could the world pivot to a situation of insufficient demand for risk-free bonds?

Since the 1990s, the world has been characterised by ex ante excess demand for risk-free bonds (sovereign bonds) . This has helped drive down real long-term interest rates. Could it now pivot to a situation where there is an ex ante shortfall of demand for risk-free bonds and therefore a rise in their equilibrium real interest rates? A shortfall of demand for risk-free bonds could result from: The magnitude of their supply, due to high fiscal deficits; The end of central bank purchases of risk-free bonds due to the end of quantitative easing; The absorption of savings by other investments at the expense of financing fiscal deficits (investments in the energy transition, in reindustrialisation); A decline in the overall level of savings due to population ageing; Concern among savers about the real quality of sovereign bonds, leading to a fall in demand for them; A decline in the level of foreign exchange reserves, if the countries that hold them convert them into productive investments.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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