Could there be a big growth slowdown in emerging countries other than China and oil exporters?
We look at emerging countries as a whole excluding China, Russia and OPEC countries. This is of course a highly diverse group. Nevertheless, we seek to determine whether the se countries have mechanisms in common that could lead to a growth slowdown for this group as a whole . These mechanisms could include: Capital outflows; Exchange rate depreciation and inflation as a result; Rising interest rates in response either to the increase in interest rates in the United States or to the exchange rate depreciation; The slowdown in global trade; The rise in oil prices and in the value of energy imports. The current rise in inflation and in interest rates in emerging countries is a concern, but the fact that capital has returned to emerging countries since the summer of 2018, putting an end to the depreciation of their exchange rates, is good news, as is the continued rapid growth in exports and the fall in oil prices. The global environment is therefore not negative for emerging countries.