Report
Could there be a shift to a savings shortfall?
For many years, the world and the OECD have been characterised by a situation of excess savings ( ex ante of course, before the rebalancing of savings and investment). There would have to be a shift to a savings shortfall for nominal and real interest rates and inflation to rise. This can happen only if: The private sector savings rate falls; Potential GDP declines; The investment rate increases; Fiscal deficits remain high. Is that possible? In the recent period, given the high private sector savings rate and the decline in investment, the situation of excess savings is likely to continue, despite negative supply shocks and fiscal deficits. In the longer term, given the population ageing, the investments linked to the energy transition and the great need for public spending, it is likely that there will be a shift towards a situation of insufficient savings.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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