Report
Patrick Artus

Could there be an emerging country (debt) crisis?

The situation in emerging countries is ambiguous. On the one hand, rising dollar interest rates ha ve traditionally been negative for emerging countries, by attracting capital to the United States at the expense of investment in emerging countries. But on the other hand, many emerging countries benefit from high commodity prices, which increase their income. Is there a logic to the current state of emerging country financial markets? Are the countries whose financial markets are deteriorating those that suffer from rising dollar interest rates and do not benefit from rising commodity prices? Or is the deterioration in emerging country financial markets wholesale, affecting all countries? We see that financial markets are discriminating between emerging countries that have external surpluses thanks to their commodity exports , those that have external deficits and others. So rather than an indiscriminate link with dollar interest rates, there is discrimination based on these two criteria.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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