Could there be another financial crisis in the euro zone, or is the euro zone now protected against crises?
Since the subprime crisis (2008-2009) and the euro-zone crisis (2010-2013), the euro zone has introduced many defensive mechanisms to prevent another financial crisis: severe banking regulations; the ESM, which is able to intervene with massive amounts in the event of a serious crisis; quantitative easing and , if necessary, the OMT. But currently, at least in a short-term perspective, the most effective weapon against crises is the very expansionary monetary policy and the very low interest rates. They make all economic agents solvent, even highly indebted ones, which protects against crises in the short term. While a crisis in the euro zone is very unlikely in the short term, there is legitimate concern about of a risk of a crisis in the medium term, which could take several forms: A rise in interest rates after a long period of very low interest rates, linked for example to an upturn in inflation as the functioning of labour markets again becomes more favourable for employees; there would then be a loss of borrower solvency, and massive capital losses for bond investors; If, on the contrary, such a rise in interest rates does not take place, the crisis may be triggered by financial imbalances caused by persistently abnormally low interest rates: asset price bubbles, lack of market discipline, weakening of banks; Lastly, the euro-zone crisis, if it is not a financial crisis, may be a political crisis. A political crisis may be triggered by a lack of mechanism reducing the heterogeneity of living standards between euro-zone countries; the uselessness of the euro zone in the absence of capital mobility between the member countries, and therefore in the absence of optimal allocation of savings.