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Could US growth fall well below potential growth?
The United States is now at full employment. Inevitably, growth is going to slow down at best to the level of potential growth (2% per year). But could US growth become much lower than potential growth? On the one hand, housing investment (residential construction) has fallen, corporate investment has weakened and the fall in share prices may have a negative effect on domestic demand; But on the other hand, fiscal policy is going to be highly expansionary in 2019, which should offset the above factors weakening domestic demand. The most likely scenario for US growth in 2019 is therefore one in which growth is similar to potential growth.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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