Report
Patrick Artus

COVID crisis: What form will the income loss eventually take?

The COVID crisis has resulted in a fall in GDP in OECD countries in 2020. So there is a loss of income, which will be borne by some economic agents in 2020 or later. But the increase in fiscal deficits has been just as large as the loss of GDP: on average, economic agents in OECD countries will not incur an income loss in 2020. If the fiscal deficits of 2020 were offset by a restrictive fiscal policy later, then the income loss would simply be delayed from 2020 to subsequent years. But this is not the case, as the fiscal deficits are being monetised - probably irreversibly - by central banks and will not have to be offset with fiscal surpluses in the future. If the money creation resulting from the fiscal deficit monetisation gave rise to inflation (in goods and services prices), the income loss would take the form of a rise in prices and the resulting fall in economic agents’ capacity to buy goods and services. But this will not be the case either, due to the disappearance of the link between money creation and inflation. So will the 2020 income loss simply disappear? This is not possible. More likely, the fiscal deficit monetisation will lead to a sharp rise in asset prices (financial and real estate assets) and the income loss will take the form of a fall in economic agents’ capacity to buy assets due to higher prices, reducing their purchasing power with respect to assets.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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