Report
Patrick Artus

COVID: How has the loss of GDP evolved?

The COVID pandemic may have a negative effect on GDP due to: The public health constraints put in place (lockdowns, curfews, shutdown of some activities, etc.); The number of sick people or close contacts who can no longer go to work. But governments and companies have learned over time to better manage the pandemic, limiting restrictions to when necessary and organising work differently (working from home, barrier measures in companies). We look at how the correlations between the stringency of public health constraints (measured by the Oxford Government Response Stringency Index) , the number of COVID cases and the loss of GDP evolved over time in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain and Italy. We find a negative correlation between GDP (especially in absolute terms) and the stringency of public health restrictions, not with the number of cases, and that this correlation disappeared from the third or fourth quarter of 2020.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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