Report

Decompression Trades:Buy ERSTBK 4 01/16/31 (SP) vs FRLBP 4 ⅜ 01/17/30 (NPS)Buy SANTAN 3 ¼ 05/27/32 (SP) vs ACAFP 0 ⅞ 01/14/32 (NPS)Buy DB 3 ¾ 01/15/30 (SP) vs SOCGEN 2 ⅛ 09/27/28 (NPS)

We view Decompression Trades as a key theme for European Banks bonds in a market where we see very tight spreads coupled with growing uncertainties going into H 2- 25 , in particular with a French political risk that should be one of the main headlines in the fall 2025. In that respect , we like three trades mentioned above as they offer the opportunity to 1) gain seniority in the capital stack, 2) improve ratings , 3) lower the sensitivity to French risk . In terms of fundamentals, we looked for major banks in core European countries with credit profiles that are relevant against their French counterparts that we play as the short leg . We target minimal spread and yield concessions a s well as minimal extensions.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

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