Central banks dispersion, fiscal dominance and tech worries - Our Weekly Cross-Asset Views

The year ends with a slight bond rally alongside bearish consolidation in equity markets, but both markets failed to display a very strong trend recently, waiting for catalysts, as the confidence in the post-shutdown U.S. data remains low. This suggests that January will bring greater clarity on the major risks for next year and on the upcoming Fed path.Nonetheless, the themes observed this week—and throughout the year—such as central banks' dispersion, fiscal dominance, debasement and the AI investment boom (and risks) are expected to persist into 2026. These factors will continue to shape as...

Central Europe’s 2026 Economic Outlook: Still on the Bright Side, Politics Aside

Economic outlook for 2026 has broadly improved for the three economies of the CE3 region. In addition, the regional disparities observed in the past two years should decline thanks to robust growth perspectives in Poland and Czech Republic coupled to a gradual recovery in Hungary with an upside potential depending on the April 2026 elections outcome (with possible unlocking of the suspended EU funds). While domestic demand, and consumer spending, in particular, should remain the main driver of growth in the years to come, thanks to dynamic wages in all three countries, its relative contribut...

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