Report
Patrick Artus

Despite the periodic bursting of asset price bubbles, the wealth-to-GDP ratio has been rising sharply as a trend: What consequences?

Admittedly, asset price bubbles burst periodically (1990, 2000, 2008, 2020, etc.). This has not prevented the ratio of total wealth to GDP (income) from rising sharply as a trend in OECD countries. What should we expect if the wealth -to- GDP ratio rises continuously? Normally, a fall in the household savings rate and a rise in the corporate investment rate: for the time being, the household savings rate has fallen, but the corporate or public investment rate has not risen; Major social and political tension due to rising wealth inequality; An impact on long-term growth, which depends on how the wealth is used: is it invested in productive capital, or in unproductive, speculative and rent generating assets? We see that it is associated with a rise in asset prices, but not with a rise in the financing of productive capital accumulation. The overall effect is negative: the increase in wealth is associated with asset price bubbles, not with stimulation of investment.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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