Did 2019 exhaust the potential for a rise in asset prices?
Share prices and real estate prices rose sharply in 2019 in the United States and the euro zone, which can be attributed to: The very low long-term interest rates (after their rise in the second half of 2018 and after the Federal Reserve’s policy change); The fall in risk aversion (in late 2019), when fears about a trade war declined; The resilience of growth, whereas some feared a recession. Can we expect the same positive development in 2020, which would lead to a continued rise in asset prices? Long-term interest rates will remain low, but they could rise slightly due to expectations of a slow monetary normalisation policy in the future; Risk aversion cannot be lower than in early 2020; By contrast, it could be positive if growth is higher than what is expected by the consensus and if investment flows into risky assets continue.