Report
Patrick Artus

Disappearance of inflation and loss of confidence in the value of money

In OECD countries, the size of the central bank’s balance sheet (central bank money supply, liquidity) has increased considerably. There is often concern that the result will be a "flight from money", as economic agents get rid of the money as they believe its value will decline. This made sense when excessive monetary creation gave raise to inflation, which actually taxed the holders of money. But nowadays, the rapid growth in the money supply is no longer giving rise to inflation. So what should the holders of the currency of a country whose money supply is increasing excessively be concerned about? Exchange rate depreciation? This is the case in emerging countries, but all OECD countries are increasing the money supply sharply; Nothing, if there is no longer any inflation or risk of a depreciation of the exchange rate? Even countries where the size of the central bank’s balance sheet is huge would then not experience a "flight from money". Financial imbalances may appear (real estate bubble, etc.), but not panic among the holders of money .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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