Report
Patrick Artus

Divergent trends cannot be extrapolated, so a crisis is inevitable

Current economic and financial trends in OECD countries cannot possibly be extrapolated: it is impossible to imagine the OECD economy continuing on these divergent paths. One must therefore expect a crisis that changes the economic dynamics. What trends cannot be extrapolated in OECD countries? The rise in debt ratios (public and private); The increase in the money supply; The rise in asset prices and therefore wealth; The skewing of income distribution against wage earners. This gives a clear picture of the nature of the coming crisis: Catch-up in wages, leading to additional inflation; Leading to a more restrictive monetary policy, driv ing down asset prices and wealth; Resulting in the need for deleveraging, leading to a recession due to a fall in spending by households, companies and governments.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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