Report
Patrick Artus

Do central banks still have the right theoretical model in mind?

It is likely that central banks implicitly use an “old” model to analyse monetary policy , where: In the long run, the key interest rate is equal in real terms to the neutral real interest rate, which balances savings and investment in the long run and is independent of monetary policy; A prolonged period of expansionary monetary policy ends up leading to an upturn in inflation. And yet: M onetary policy has been found to have an effect on real interest rates even in the long run; the concept of the neutral real interest rate therefore makes no sense; When the central bank controls the nominal interest rate and not the money supply, a persistently expansionary monetary policy (i.e. persistently low nominal interest rates) leads to lower and not higher inflation.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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