Report
Do Gold and Bitcoin prices tell us anything?
We seek to determine whether changes in gold or Bitcoin prices provide information on investors’ perception of: Future monetary policy ( in the United States, the OECD); Future inflation (in OECD countries); Future share price movements; The dollar’s exchange rate. The idea is that investors may switch to gold or Bitcoin when expected returns on bonds or equities are too low, to hedge against inflation or a depreciation of the dollar or to hedge against a loss of value of public currencies when monetary policies are highly expansionary. We find that both the gold price and the Bitcoin price have a stable correlation only with monetary policy and not with inflation, share prices or the dollar’s exchange rate. They both rise when long-term interest rates are low and when the central bank money supply increases.
Provider
Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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