Do low interest rates boost or hinder innovation?
The economic literature (see Appendix ) shows that low interest rates can have an ambiguous effect on innovation: Technologically advanced companies (the “leaders”) have a higher valuation when interest rates fall: their advantage over other companies is increased, and they can then increase their dominant position and discourage lagging companies; the increase in the power of dominant, monopolistic companies, and the disappearance of entrants (companies that could compete with dominant companies) reduces innovation and productivity; Technologically lagging companies (“laggards”) are encouraged to invest in innovation because interest rates are low (it is easier to borrow, the return on innovation is higher than interest rates). The laggards then catch up, and there is a surge in innovation and productivity. Observed facts are rather consistent with the first theory (the enrichment of dominant companies reduces innovation and productivity).