Do oil prices reflect a real deterioration in the global economy?

Oil prices have fallen sharply since April 2019. There are then two possibilities: Either the fall in oil prices simply reflects the (probably erroneous) expectation of a fall in global economic activity, leading to significant speculative short positions in oil; Or it reflects a real change in the situation of the oil market, with a shift to a configuration of excess supply as the real deterioration in the global economy weakens global demand for oil. An analysis of the facts seems to show that: The fall in prices since April 2019 is primarily due to a decline in speculative positions; The outlook for 2020 is for a parallel decline in global oil supply and demand.