Do some countries manipulate their exchange rate?
In September 2018, Donald Trump announced that to assess whether various countries conducted policies to manipulate their exchange rate, the United States would look at their: Overall current-account balance, Monetary policy and foreign exchange interventions; Trade balance with the United States. The current-account balance and the trade balance with the United States are questionable indicators of exchange-rate manipulation: they result from countries’ savings rates, productive specialisation and position in value chains. Exchange-rate depreciation can also result from a financial crisis. If we focus on monetary policy and foreign exchange interventions, we find that: The euro zone, the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan can be considered to manipulate their exchange rates with abnormally low interest rates given their cyclical positions; China can be considered to manipulate its exchange rate with abnormally low interest rates and its small loss of foreign exchange reserves.