Report
Patrick Artus

Does expansionary fiscal policy lead to inflation expectations?

In theory, if there is fiscal dominance, an expansionary fiscal policy leads to a persistently expansionary monetary policy to ensure fiscal solvency. This may mean that an expansionary fiscal policy leads to a rise in expected inflation. This reaction of expected inflation is apparently present at the individual household level 1 . In this Flash we seek to determine, for the United States and the euro zone, whether it is present at the macroeconomic level for: Inflation expectations in financial markets (inflation swaps); Households' inflation expectations. We find: In the United States, no effect of fiscal deficits or public debt on expected inflation; In the euro zone, a significant effect of a fiscal deficit and a change in the public debt ratio on expected inflation in financial markets, except in 2020. 1 See O.   Coibion, Y. Gorodnichenko, M. Weber, “Fiscal Policy and Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial”, NBER Working Paper no. 28485, February 2021.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch