Does expansionary fiscal policy lead to inflation expectations?
In theory, if there is fiscal dominance, an expansionary fiscal policy leads to a persistently expansionary monetary policy to ensure fiscal solvency. This may mean that an expansionary fiscal policy leads to a rise in expected inflation. This reaction of expected inflation is apparently present at the individual household level 1 . In this Flash we seek to determine, for the United States and the euro zone, whether it is present at the macroeconomic level for: Inflation expectations in financial markets (inflation swaps); Households' inflation expectations. We find: In the United States, no effect of fiscal deficits or public debt on expected inflation; In the euro zone, a significant effect of a fiscal deficit and a change in the public debt ratio on expected inflation in financial markets, except in 2020. 1 See O. Coibion, Y. Gorodnichenko, M. Weber, “Fiscal Policy and Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial”, NBER Working Paper no. 28485, February 2021.