Report
Patrick Artus

Does France need demand stimulus?

We believe that across-the-board demand stimulus in France would be pointless. Our arguments are as follows: The situations of households and companies are disparate and there are categories of households and companies that are in difficulty and need support. But on the whole, the ir situation is good and there is no need at the macroeconomic level to boost their incomes or demand; Growth will be spontaneously vigorous from the third quarter of 2021 as the public health restrictions are lifted and global trade grows strongly on the back of the simultaneous recovery in the various regions; labour shortages are already appearing; Interest rates will rise in the future, so an increase in the public debt should be avoided if it is to stimulate demand; To combat the risk of lower potential growth after the crisis, France should focus on public spending (R&D, education, training, etc.) or tax cuts that have a positive effect on productivity, employment and long-term growth. In other words, the focus should primarily be on stimulating supply.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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