Report
Hadrien CAMATTE

Does France really need a Prime Minister?

France has had no effective government for 5 0 days, a record since 1946 and the fourth and fifth R epublic. However, this vacancy is not an exception from a European perspective, where forming a government usually demands a prolonged negotiation process . According to the French Constitution, the Prime Minister has substantial power s , even if its role has been weakened since the constitutional reform in 2008 . However, the Prime Minister could regain a key role as a Hung Parliament implies a return to cohabitation or a coalition government. What scenarios? W hereas L. Castets ’ candidacy ( New Popular Front - NP F ) seems to have been ruled out by President Macron due to the lack of a sufficient majority in the National Assembly to avoid a vote of no confidence, c onsultations are intensifying between the President and political parties to find a Prime minister. Se veral names are mentioned , on both the left and the right, as well as personalities from civil society. Should the consultations fail, this would strengthen the likelihood of a technocratic government before new snap elections in the summer of 2025. The first challenge for the next government will be to present a credible b udget in a tight schedule and a very constrained budgetary (excessive deficit procedure, rating agencies warnings , risk of new fiscal slippage, etc.) and political (risk of a no confidence vote ) framework.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Hadrien CAMATTE

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