Report
Lysu Paez Cortez

Does Joe Biden’s victory point toward a shift of US policy in the Middle East?

Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election opens the way for a paradigm shift in both the American domestic and international policy , based on the re -interpretation of the “America first” ideal in in a more multilateral and rule-based spirit. A paradigm shift that will likely impact the US policy in the Middle E ast. During the election campaign, Biden promised he would revert most of Trump ’s foreign policy measures. Consequently, and at firs t sight , Biden ’s victory could be read as bad news for Israel and Saudi Arabia ( close allies of President Trump ) and for Turkey ( a “ rebellious ” NATO ally ) and as positive news for Iran – who could be back on the negotiation table to see the nuclear deal restored. Yet we believe Biden policy will primarily differ from the previous administration on ly on Iran and Turkey, the differences with Saudi Arabia and Israel expected to be reassessed in the respect of their long-time alliances . R eality is that with so many urgent matters to deal with domestically – the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic impact to name the most urgent one s – the Middle East does not appear as a top priority now on the new president agenda. Accordingly, e xce pt from the reevaluation of sanctions on Turkey , the US return to a “two-state solution” plan for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the possibility to see the US re-entering the Iranian nuclear deal, Biden’s administration foreign policy and military decisions in the Middle East will be mostly driven by the US security and economic interest in the region. In this short piece w e aim to offer our view on what we think will be the US administration position towards key Middle East regional players .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Lysu Paez Cortez

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