Report
Patrick Artus

Does the euro zone really have excess savings over investment?

If we look at the euro zone's current account balance, which recently showed a surplus of almost 3% of gross domestic product, we might be tempted to conclude that the euro zone has excess savings, which will enable it to keep real long-term interest rates low. But when we take into account the fact that the euro zone makes long-term invest ments in the rest of the world (in equities, bonds and direct investments) because the y are more attractive than investments in the euro zone, we see that in reality, the euro zone’s excess savings cannot be used to finance investments in the euro zone, and that if there is a rise in the investment rate due to the additional investments required for the ecological transition, this rise will lead to a rise in the real long-term interest rate, even though it may seem that there is a savings surplus in the euro zone.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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