Report
Does the level of inflation expectations of financial markets and households mean that inflation will not be higher in the medium term?
If we look at different inflation expectations in the United States and the euro zone ,we see that: Inflation expectations in the financial markets have not risen relative to the past; Household inflation expectations are not higher today than in the past (from 2002 to 2019 ); If we want to forecast future inflation, it is better to look at household inflation expectations, which determine wage growth. It is not clear that households' medium-term inflation expectations are higher than in the past: households are not incorporating into their expectations the structural causes of higher inflation today (energy transition, obstacles to global trade, industrial reshoring to the euro zone, decline in the working-age population).
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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