Does the yield curve slope react to growth expectations?

Concerns are often raised about the flattening or inversion of the yield curve slope, with the idea that these developments point to a recession. We will therefore seek to find out what determines the slope of the yield curve ( the swap curve , to avoid disruptions caused by fluctuations in sovereign risk premia ). In principle, the yield curve slope (we look at the United States and the euro zone) depends on: Short-term interest rates; Expected inflation; The global monetary base (in absolute terms, which represents the outstanding bonds held by central banks); The variability of short-term interest rates; And , the point that we are examining , growth prospects ( which we measure by composite PMI s ). We find that the yield curve slope in the United States and the euro zone depends on all the expected variables, except expected growth. So there is no direct information on expected growth in yield curve slopes.