Donald Trump wants to eliminate the US external deficit: Is this possible, and how?
Donald Trump wants to obtain trade concessions from countries with which the United States has a large external deficit: Canada and Mexico (with which a new free trade agreement is about to be signed), China, Europe, Japan . Donald Trump’s objective is to reduce the US trade deficit with these countries, with the idea that this reduction will boost production in the United States. But the US external deficit is mainly explained by the low level of savings in the United States compared with other countries. To reduce the US external deficit, the US household savings rate must therefore be increased, which can be done by using: A more restrictive fiscal and monetary policy in the United States, which is not possible currently; A depreciation of the dollar, which has not started yet; A sufficient taxation of imports (through tariffs); the increase in import prices increases the cost of consumption and increases savings, but such a policy is aggressive with respect to other countries and triggers retaliation. This means that Donald Trump probably will be unable to reduce the US external deficit. The other countries can hardly force themselves to buy more US products.