ECB monetary policy: The key role of euro-zone countries’ potential growth

The ECB’s statements are quite clear: it believes that the euro-zone countries will resolve their public debt problem through growth , not restrictive fiscal policy (given the ill-fated precedent of 2011-2013). This means that euro-zone monetary policy must help boost productivity gains and thus potential growth, especially in the countries where it is very low. There are then two scenarios: Structural reforms, a rise in the employment rate, the investment effort and economic digitalisation lead to faster productivity gains in all the countries where this is needed, and the ECB then regains the ability to return to a less expansionary monetary policy ; Or productivity gains and potential growth in the euro zone or in some important countries remain low (which is the current situation) and the ECB has to keep its monetary policy highly expansionary and cannot really react to inflation surges, both in order to prevent a debt crisis and to promote investment, employment and higher potential growth.