Economic and sanitary review – What real time indicators say #13

For this last edition before a summer break , we are taking stock of the developments in high-frequency data that we have presented in recent weeks. Among the most important information to note , the increase in the number of cases in Europe and in the United States remains the major concern of this period. A resurgence of the epidemic could occur if the situation deteriorates, and if the R0 (reproductive index) of the different countries continues to grow. The restriction indices on health measures tend to rise again gradually with new partial lockdowns in some European areas . At the same time, business and consumer confidence seems to be increas ing : on one hand, the different activity indicators (PMI, business climate) are rising strongly after historical lows during the containment period. On the other hand, households seem cautious in the face of the economic and health situation . Consumption has restarted strongly: retail sales and shops attendance are increasing again and even exceeding pre-crisis levels in some European countries. Air travel, on the other hand, is still well below the pre-COVID average. Tourism remains one of the factors most affected by the crisis. Although international tourism remains particularly weak due to restrictions on international mobility, the recovery of domestic tourism and catering is very heterogeneous across countr ies . Finally, some structural changes seem to be emerging: while television consumption has fallen back to its pre-crisis level, media and online entertainment platforms ( Twitch , Steam ) seem to be gaining ground, with a much higher number of spectators than before lockdown . Concerning mobility of people , traffic congestion in large cities is increasing but is still not returning to last year’s average level. The use of the bicycle in Paris, on the other hand, is becoming more and more common and beats historical records. Finally, revenues from online retailing seem to remain above their previous levels despite the reopening of physical stores, suggesting potential changes in consumption patterns in Europe .