Report
Economic policy in the euro zone during and after the war in Ukraine
As long as the war in Ukraine lasts, euro-zone fiscal policy will be highly expansionary (due to increased military and energy transition spending, support for households and companies struggling with high energy prices), and euro-zone monetary policy will also be highly expansionary (to facilitate the financing of public spending). When the war ends and a diplomatic solution is found, euro-zone inflation and fiscal deficits will be high, well above target targets. With the "war economy" gone, monetary and fiscal policies are likely to become much more restrictive. Compared to current financial market expectations, monetary policy will be more expansionary during the war period and more restrictive afterwards.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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