Economies’ sensitivity to interest rates has increased considerably
When a central bank raises interest rates, it makes a trade-off between the gain in well-being that results from a fall in inflation (if it is higher than the inflation target) and the loss of well-being that results from the decline in activity. Over time, however, real economies in OECD countries have become increasingly sensitive to interest rates, due to: Rising debt ratios; Rising asset prices and the size of wealth, and therefore wealth effects; Increasing use of debt leverage by companies; The well-established expectation that long-term interest rates will not rise. While the cost in terms of activity of raising interest rates has thus increased significantly, central banks react much less to rising inflation than they did in the past.