Emerging countries excluding China, the most “reassuring†asset class for 2019?
Financial markets have declined markedly since the start of 2018, but is this sufficient to invest again now, and in which region? The threat in the United States is the decline in growth, which investors have not yet factored in; The euro zone will probably continue to suffer from the effects of weakening growth, the Italian crisis, and possibly a "hard Brexit"; Japan is likely to fall back into its structural situation of very weak growth; The slowdown of the Chinese economy is severe and fairly broad-based. In that case there would be a single "reassuring" asset class for 2019: emerging countries excluding China . T he worst of the currency depreciation and capital outflows is probably behind us in these countries ; political risk has declined there; the difficulties of the other regions encourage a return of capital to emerging countries, and emerging-country growth remains strong.