Report
Empirically, how much of the loss of GDP is recovered after a recession?
The question arises again today: after the recession caused by the coronavirus, how much of the loss in GDP level during a recession is recovered after the recession? We know that in certain sectors (tourism, transport, etc.), the loss of revenues is largely irreversible. We also know that a recession has lasting negative effects on growth (capital losses, increased debt). When we look at the 2008-2009 recession, we see that the portion of the loss in GDP levels that was never recovered after the recession is empirically, and surprisingly so: 100% in the United States; 100% in the euro zone; 0% in China.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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