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Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
We were in Mexico last week, where we met with central bank officials, independent economists, pension fund managers and corporate representatives. We perceived a sense of cautious optimism. Growth is weak, but slightly better than expected at the beginning of the year. Inflation is sticky, particularly core inflation, but the moderation might be enough for the continuation of rate cuts particularly if the Fed re-starts its easing cycle soon. Pemex remains problematic, but the recently announced strategic plan contains some positive elements. There is h ope that Mexico's manufacturing export...
Overall the July CPI report showed less tariff related goods pressures than expected, in a month where we believed increased price pass-throughs would be more evident. Where tariff related cost increases are being absorbed along the supply chain is yet to be determined (tomorrow’s PPI should help inform), but thus far while goods prices are rising faster than earlier in the year, the impact in July was less than expected. For details, headline CPI came out at +0.2% m/m (+0.197% unrounded, +0.2% consensus) and +2.7% y/y (vs. +2.8% consensus), with food prices moderating slightly and energy pos...
What if France’s political and fiscal instability pressure were to come back before year-end ? What consequences for French banks’ ratings and spreads?As the pressure has been mounting again on the French government (see France 2026 Budget: Impossible mission II from our economists) regarding the 2026 budget, the likelihood of a French sovereign rating downgrade has recently increased.Against this backdrop, we are exploring hereafter the relationships between i/ France’s ratings and French Banks’ ones, ii/ France sovereign spreads/CDS and French banks’ spreads/CDSGood news is that a one-notch ...
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