Energy transition: The consequences of replacing depreciated existing capital with undepreciated new capital
The energy transition will lead to the replacement of depreciated existing capital (old nuclear power plants, production of fossil fuels, production of ICE cars and intermediate goods with fossil fuels) with undepreciated new capital (production of renewable energies, new nuclear power plants, electric cars, production of intermediate goods with hydrogen, etc.). Companies will therefore have to write down this new capital, which was not the case with the existing capital, resulting in an increase in the cost of capital. This may lead to: Either an increase in prices and in profit margins to offset this increase in the cost of capital. This is apparently what is happening at present; Or the acceptance by companies of a lower net return on capital ; Or a fall in wages and in the labour share of value added, which is unlikely today. An increase in prices and/or a fall in the return on equity are bad news for financial (equity) markets.