EU political landscape on the eve of the elections: will there be a populist wave?

The citizens of the 27 Member States of the European Union will go to the polls between 6 and 9 June 2024 to elect the Members of the European Parliament for a five-year term. The 2019 European elections were marked by a decline in the two large traditional party families , the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), to the benefit in particular of Renew Europe (RE) and the Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA). The latest polls suggest that a sea change is in the offing in June. The main winners would be the populist groups, European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID), at the expense of RE and the Greens/EFA. The European Parliament would swing further to the right, but its governance would not be fundamentally altered, as the large EPP/S&D/RE alliance is likely to retain a majority. However, this election is shrouded with uncertainties, in particular over the assimilation of national political parties at the European level. Thus , forming coalitions and finding common political ground could become even more difficult.