FOMC Recap: One small step towards neutral

In its September meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) lowered the main policy rate by 25bp to an upper bound of 4.25%. This is the first reduction this year and confirms the dovish pivot previewed in Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole in late August. The Fed has clearly shifted its focus to arresting labor market weakness as it views that inflation (absent tariffs) will not accelerate. We think the Fed will continue to cut this year and next until the policy rate reaches 3%, but that inflation will remain sticky and well above target throughout 2026. For US r ates, we fo...

FOMCプレビュー：すぐに始めよう

Euro area: August inflation review

According to Eurostat's final release , the Euro area annual headline inflation stabilized at 2.0 4 % in August (vs. flash 2.05%) , unchanged from July. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, alcohol and tobacco prices, held at 2.27% ( according to flash estimate ) , below 2.31% in the previous month. HICP inflation by components showed: The contribution of Services to annual headline inflation decreasing to 1.41pp (1.44pp in July). The contribution of Food, Alcohol and Tobacco going down to 0.62pp (0.63pp in July). The contribution of the Energy inflation at -0.18p...