Euro area: March Inflation PreviewFlash estimate

Driven by an increase in energy prices, we expect Euro area headline inflation to rise to 2.4% year-on-year in March (+0.53 percentage point (pp) from February's 1.9%). Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, alcohol and tobacco prices, is projected to edge up to 2.43% year-on-year (+0.02 pp from February's 2.41%). These developments lead us to forecast an average headline inflation of 2.00% year-on-year for Q1 2026, with core inflation averaging 2.34% year-on-year. Looking ahead to the full year 2026, our projections stand at 2.62% year-on-year for headline inflation and 2.19% year-on-year for core inflation.