Euro area Q4 GDP growth: zero growth and strong heterogeneity between countries

Euro Area GDP remained stable in Q4 2024 after + 0.4 % in Q3 according to Eurostat preliminary figures, below consensus expectations but in line with our forecast. Heterogeneity persists between countries in Q4 : German GDP contracted (-0.2% Q/Q after +0.1%) due to a fall in exports. French GDP decreased by -0.1% due to backlash effects of the Olympic Games that boosted Q3 GDP growth. Underlying growth remained slightly positive (see here ). Italian GDP was stable, with a negative contribution from domestic demand. Spanish GDP growth continue d to outperform its peers with +0.8% Q/Q and despite devastating floods in Valencia (see here ). For the whole year 2024, GDP increased by 0.7% in the euro area after 0.5% in 2023. In 2024, German GDP contracted by -0.2%, French GDP expanded by 1.1%, Italian GDP increased by 0.5% and Spanish growth reached 3.2%, the highest rate among G8 countries. For Q1 2025, recent surveys suggest a slight pickup in growth , and we expect +0.3 % Q/Q , a bit higher than our nowcasting model ( +0.1-0.2%% GDP growth ) .