Report
Patrick Artus

Euro zone: Could the ECB forever monetise all fiscal deficits and governments forever offset the loss of GDP?

We examine the following economic policy arrangement in the euro zone: Governments forever offset with fiscal deficits the COVID crisis-induced permanent loss of GDP, which may even grow over time, such that other economic agents (households, companies, etc.) do not lose income; The ECB forever monetises these fiscal deficits to prevent any financing problem and any rise in long-term interest rates. Is such an arrangement conceivable? It would lead to a fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2021 followed by 4.7% of GDP on average over 2022-2023; it would lead to an increase in the monetary base (the central bank money supply) of 14% in 2021 and 10% on average over 2022-2023. This is a very important question : if this money creation is rejected, fiscal deficits will no longer be able to be so large and it will not be possible to spare households and companies in the euro zone from a loss of income.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch