Natixis - Euro zone: Due to employment stickiness, the unemployment rate may not peak until the second quarter of 2021

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Natixis

Patrick Artus

Euro zone: Due to employment stickiness, the unemployment rate may not peak until the second quarter of 2021

We look at the usual dynamics of employment relative to GDP in the euro zone. When we apply it to the profile of 2020 GDP, we see that unemployment is likely to peak only in the second quarter of 2021 in the euro zone. So it is hard to imagine a marked recovery before then , as long as the labour market situation continues to deteriorate.

19/07/2020 4 EN

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Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

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Analysts

Patrick Artus

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Euro zone: Due to employment stickiness, the unemployment rate may not peak until the second quarter of 2021

Long Bono 01/41 vs. Short Bund 05/41

Overview of the Asian covered bond market

Consolidation after the euphoria?

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