Report
Patrick Artus

Euro zone: The temptation to increase fiscal deficits is strong; will market discipline allow it?

Many euro-zone countries are faced with: Demand for increased purchasing power; The impossibility of reducing public spending (welfare transfers, etc.); Significant needs for public investment; Very low interest rates. It is then obviously very tempting for these countries’ governments to increase fiscal deficits markedly. But can they do so without market discipline kicking in, driving up interest rates sharply? We can here see major inequality between the countries: Those that market discipline will force to refrain from increasing their fiscal deficits, which are hit by a sharp rise in interest rates as soon as their fiscal deficit increases (Italy); Those that market discipline will not force to do so (France), probably because their reputation is resilient to higher fiscal deficits .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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