Report
Patrick Artus

Euro zone: Towards a huge public debt crisis in 2022-2023 if the ECB does not continue to control the yield curve?

There no longer seems to be any limit to euro-zone countries’ fiscal deficits, given the multiplication of public spending hikes, tax cuts, etc. This does not matter as long as the ECB monetises these fiscal deficits (in 2020, probably throughout 2021). But what will happen after that? Fiscal deficits will remain high, as governments have also increased their structural fiscal deficits and the level of GDP will be permanently lower ; Inflation will rise on the back of economies’ return to normal, reshoring of production, population ageing and rising commodity prices; The ECB will not reduce the size of its balance sheet, which means that the fiscal deficits of 2020 and 2021 will have no effect on euro-zone countries’ fiscal solvency. There are then two scenarios: Either the ECB continues to control the yield curve, with very low long-term interest rates, which will require massive bond purchases since the rise in inflation would otherwise drive up long-term interest rates. The money supply would then grow very rapidly and permanently, with the well-known dangers (asset price bubbles, loss of confidence in money); Or the ECB stops buying new government bonds and simply stabilises the size of its balance sheet. Long-term interest rates could then rise sharply, due to non-monetised fiscal deficits and rising inflation, leading to a borrower solvency problem.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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