Euro zone: What happens when two regions differ by their savings rate?
We can divide the euro zone into two regions: on the one hand Germany and the Netherlands, which structurally have excess savings; on the other hand the other countries , which structurally have a shortfall in savings. What we have seen between these two regions is then completely in accordance with the theory: First (1999-2009), the countries with surplus savings have an external surplus, and the countries with a shortfall in savings have an external deficit and accumulate external debt . This means that the countries with a shortfall in savings have an overvalued currency: in a currency area, this means that their prices and wages are high and their cost competitiveness is weak . Later (2010-2019), the countries with a shortfall in savings have to stabilise their external debt; they therefore have to switch to an external surplus, which requires a real devaluation, i.e. in a currency area a fall in prices and wages that improves cost competitiveness.