Report
Patrick Artus

Euro zone: What happens when two regions differ by their savings rate?

We can divide the euro zone into two regions: on the one hand Germany and the Netherlands, which structurally have excess savings; on the other hand the other countries , which structurally have a shortfall in savings. What we have seen between these two regions is then completely in accordance with the theory: First (1999-2009), the countries with surplus savings have an external surplus, and the countries with a shortfall in savings have an external deficit and accumulate external debt . This means that the countries with a shortfall in savings have an overvalued currency: in a currency area, this means that their prices and wages are high and their cost competitiveness is weak . Later (2010-2019), the countries with a shortfall in savings have to stabilise their external debt; they therefore have to switch to an external surplus, which requires a real devaluation, i.e. in a currency area a fall in prices and wages that improves cost competitiveness.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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