Euro zone: What is the greatest risk?
Today’s economic policy choices in the euro zone boil down to an assessment of what is the greatest present risk: The risk of a considerable increase in unemployment and in corporate bankruptcies certainly outweighs the risk of a higher public debt ratio, hence the choice made to run whatever fiscal deficits necessary; The risk of a public debt crisis in the peripheral countries and of a break-up of the euro certainly outweighs the risk of excess liquidity and asset price bubbles, hence the choice made by the ECB to fully monetise fiscal deficits; The risk of slipping back into recession in 2021 and the risk of being unable to finance the new policies needed (healthcare, training, reshoring, etc.) certainly outweigh the risk of a continued rise in the public debt ratio, hence the choice that in all likelihood will be made to keep an expansionary fiscal policy in place and, for the ECB, to continue to monetise public debt. So it is likely that the current policy mix (very high fiscal deficits monetised by the ECB) will be kept in place for a long time, regardless of the risks (excess liquidity, bubbles) and the political misgivings in some countries.