Euro zone: What to do if 2021 growth is much lower than expected today?
Forecasters currently expect growth of around 5% in the euro zone in 2021 and a level of GDP at the end of 2021 around 3% lower than that at the end of 2019. But there is reason to fear lower growth if the second wave of the pandemic weakens economies in late 2020 and early 2021, and even lower growth if a third wave occurs before the mass vaccination of the population. So what economic policy should the euro zone adopt if growth is still weak in 2021? As a vaccine will eventually arrive and the economy will improve, the only solution would then be to: Keep in place the measures to protect the economy (short-time working schemes, corporate aid) and a very large fiscal deficit, higher than that currently projected; Extend the ECB’s full monetisation of fiscal deficits beyond the end of 2021.